دوره 35، شماره 1 - ( 1403 )
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Hedayatifard M. Understanding Iranian Inter-Regional Migration Network: Applying the Gravity Model on a Provincial Scale. IJAUP 2025; 35 (1)
URL: http://ijaup.iust.ac.ir/article-1-738-fa.html
URL: http://ijaup.iust.ac.ir/article-1-738-fa.html
Understanding Iranian Inter-Regional Migration Network: Applying the Gravity Model on a Provincial Scale. دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران. 1403; 35 (1)
چکیده:
This study examines the historical trends and dynamics of inter-regional migration in Iran between 1996 and 2011, focusing on the economic and spatial factors influencing migration flows between origin and destination regions. The analysis applies network analysis and multivariable regression to 961 inter-regional migration pairs. The findings reveal, first, that economically powerful regions such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Khorasan attract the highest levels of migration due to their diverse economic opportunities, infrastructure, and urban amenities. However, wealth alone does not determine migration activity. For example, regions like Khuzestan and Bushehr, despite their high GDP per capita, experience lower migration rates due to limited employment opportunities in capital-intensive sectors like oil and gas and a lack of economic diversification. Second, the analysis highlights that migration decreases with geographic distance but increases toward major urban centers like Tehran, reflecting the pull of agglomeration economies and access to services, which attract migrants from farther regions. Tehran's sustained position as a primary destination underscores its pivotal role in Iran's economic and social framework. The transition from smaller to larger migration flows, particularly in the 50,000–100,000 range and higher, reflects increasing urbanization and intensified migration trends driven by population growth, regional inequalities, and the concentration of opportunities in major cities. Third, between 1996 and 2011, non-productive sectors such as real estate and trade in origin regions pushed migration, while productive sectors like agriculture and fisheries retained populations. Conversely, financial intermediation and energy-related activities in destination regions attracted migrants. The findings also show that while regional wealth reduces out-migration, saturation effects in developed regions, such as high living costs and job market constraints, limit their attractiveness. These findings emphasize the importance of balanced regional development and the role of infrastructure and economic opportunities in shaping migration trends.
نوع مطالعه: Research Paper |
موضوع مقاله:
Regional Planning
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